Aaron Judge in 2023: Even better than in ’22?

Match	AB	P	CS	PP	BB	RB	HR	BV	Moy
04/06àDodgers	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	.291
03/06àDodgers	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.291
01/06àMariners	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	.298
Saison régulière	175	42	51	40	35	63	19	3	.291
Carrière (2016-2023)	2,813	577	799	537	507	971	239	43	.284

Aaron Judge produced one of the greatest offensive seasons in baseball history last year. Not only did he set an American League record by smashing 62 home runs, he also became only the eighth player in MLB history to produce an OPS+ of 210 or greater in a season of 600 or more plate appearances.

Before Judge’s prodigious 2022 campaign, only Babe Ruth, Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds had ever accomplished that. 

Given how rare of a season it was, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to think that Judge, even with more incredible seasons in the future, might never replicate what he did in 2022. But given what he’s done so far in ’23, it’s become reasonable to ask: Can he do it again? Or, dare we contemplate … an even better season?

Here’s a look at why Judge, who was named American League Player of the Month for May and has been red-hot since returning from a hip injury, could, amazingly, outdo himself yet again:

He’s shown he’s just as dangerous at the plate as ever

There was only one span of 16 games last season in which Judge hit more home runs while producing a higher OPS than his output from May 13-31 (12 homers, 1.588 OPS). That was from July 14-Aug. 1, 2022, when he launched 13 homers with a 1.612 OPS.

This demonstrates that Judge remains essentially the same hitter as he was in his record-breaking season — one could argue he’s been even better given his quality of contact and expected statistics; more on those below.

Many star sluggers of the past had career years before regressing to merely “great” seasons the rest of the way. Take the Yankees legend whose AL single-season home run record Judge eclipsed last season, Roger Maris. Maris had the exact same number of at-bats the year after he belted 61 homers to break Babe Ruth’s mark in 1961 (590), but he hit “only” 33 homers with an OPS more than 150 points lower.

With his unbelievable two-plus weeks at the plate after returning from a hip injury, Judge is proving he remains as dangerous as ever, even after one of the all-time great single-season performances in the game’s storied history.

Through 49 games, his numbers are nearly identical to last year’s

Despite getting off to a slow start — slow by Judge’s lofty standards, anyway — the superstar slugger is basically right where he was through the same number of games played last season. He’s even a shade better.

Judge was hitting .255/.349/.481 with six homers through May 12, but with his slugging binge since then, he now has 19 homers on the season to go along with a 1.078 OPS. Yes, he missed 10 games due to the hip issue, but through the same number of games played last season, he had 19 homers and a 1.034 OPS.

So, won’t the 10 missed games be a problem in Judge’s quest for a season that tops his 2022? They certainly could. He’s actually played in nine fewer games than he did by the Yankees’ 60th game of 2022 — the club played in its 60th game of this season Saturday at Dodger Stadium.

But consider that Judge only had one home run through his first 13 games last year — from then on, he homered once every 8.6 at-bats and posted a 1.143 OPS.

If Judge were to homer every 8.6 at-bats with a 1.143 OPS the rest of this season, assuming the same average number of at-bats per game as 2022, and accounting for the occasional off-day (we’ll give him four, the same number as in 2022), he’d finish with … 60 homers and an OPS a touch over 1.100. He hit 62 homers with a 1.111 OPS last season.

Could the margin of error in our rough calculations here be +/- three homers? If so, don’t dismiss the case for a 63-plus-homer season for Judge in 2023, especially given how hard he’s hitting the baseball.